The research team from the Department of Mathematics, FMIPA UI, which is part of Mathematical Epidemiology Research Group, namely Dr. Dipo Aldila, Dr. Hengki Tasman, and Bevina D. Handari, Ph.D. are conducting research related to mathematical models that are being developed to understand the effects of Early Detection and Physichal Distancing in the spread of Covid-19.
They collaborate with lecturers and researchers in the field of mathematics from various other universities around the world.
This was conveyed directly by Dr. Dipo at the MIPATalk Series 9 event held online by FMIPA UI on Thursday, August 13, 2020.
At the event, Dr. Dipo presented material entitled Predicting the Effectiveness of Early Detection and Physichal Distancing on the Covid-19 Eradication Program: A Case Study in Jakarta.
In his presentation, Dr. Dipo revealed that mathematical models have actually existed for a long time and are often used as an approach to a phenomenon, including the phenomenon of the spread of various diseases, long before the Covid-19 pandemic broke out.
In 1927 a mathematical model known as the SIR Model was proposed by Kermack-Mc. Kendrick.
The idea of this modeling is very simple, namely dividing the human population based on its health status, namely the population of healthy people (susceptible (S(t)), infected people (infected (I(t)), and the person who recovered returned (recovered (R(t)), which then uses a system of differential equations to predict how many people will be infected and how many will recover in the future.
Meanwhile, the research currently being developed by Dr. Dipo and his team is the SEA model.dAuIR. Model SEAdAuIR is able to capture various phenomena that are occurring in society, including asymptomatic/symptomatic cases, detected/undected cases, latency period, limitation of hospital capacity, rapid testing, self-isolation, And physical distancing.
All these phenomena were then modeled, and a 6-dimensional model with a non-linear system was obtained.
Dimensi model SEAdAuIR yang sedang dikembangkan tim dosen Departemen Matematika FMIPA UI
Of the six dimensions, Dr. Dipo and his team conducted an analysis related to 6 factors, namely the basic reproduction number (R0), parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, final state of population, bifurcation analysis, and numerical experiment.
At the end of the presentation, Dr. Dipo concluded that mathematical models should not be used as a guideline in predicting long-term conditions, because in modeling many assumptions are made to simplify the model.
“It should be noted that the mathematical model should not lead us to overconfidence in long-term predictions,” said Dr. Dipo.
Furthermore, he said that mathematical models need to be continuously evaluated and developed by mathematicians according to developments in the field.
“The models created by mathematicians must also be continuously evaluated,” Dr. Dipo added.
