The Alumni Association of the Mathematics Department of the University of Indonesia has made a mathematical calculation regarding the peak of the Covid-19 coronavirus outbreak in Indonesia and its potential end. The calculation is contained in a document distributed via the official Instagram account of the UI Mathematics Department Alumni on Monday (March 30, 2020).
The document states that the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia will peak on April 16 and subside in May and June. Meanwhile, there will be an increase of around 546 new positive cases. However, this estimate will only occur if the government implements strategic policies by April 1. These policies must also be supported by public discipline in implementing physical distancing.
If these strategic policies and public discipline are realized by April 1, 2020, the accumulated number of new positive cases will reach 17,000. The pandemic is expected to end in late May to early June 2020. However, if policies are not firm and strategic, coupled with a lack of public discipline, the spread of the outbreak will worsen. The worst-case scenario is that the pandemic peak will occur on May 2nd, with an additional 1,490 new cases.
Accumulated, the number of cases could reach 60,000, and the pandemic will only end in late June or July. The worst-case scenario is if no firm policies are implemented by April 1, 2020. If that happens, the pandemic will peak on June 4th, with 11,318 new cases. Accumulated, positive coronavirus cases will reach hundreds of thousands, with the pandemic only ending in late August to early September.
Looking at these three calculations, it can be concluded that government policies and public discipline are crucial. Based on data, one person positive for COVID-19 can infect 2-3 new people. This means the number of infected people could reach thousands. “This is why physical distancing must be implemented diligently, and residents in red zones should refrain from returning home to minimize the risk of large-scale transmission to other areas that have not yet been affected,” wrote the UI Mathematics Department Alumni. “This will significantly impact the accumulation of positive Covid-19 cases,” they added.
As of Tuesday (March 31, 2020), the government has implemented Large-Scale Social Restrictions (PSBS). If this policy can be implemented properly, the first calculation will likely occur. The calculation of the peak of the Covid-19 outbreak was compiled by Barry Mikhael Cavin, Rahmat Al Kafi, Yoshua Yonatan Hamonangan, and Imanuel M. Rustijono through the UI Mathematics Department Alumni Association.
